Thursday, 24 March 2011

Blog Hits = X^-2 | Trends in Traffic

Over last few months I have noticed a patern to hits on my blogs. not only on my site here but on other sites also. Below is the typical graph I get for one blog post after it has been posted.

What looks to happen is after posting it either though RSS feeds, email updates or following a tweet about the new content every hits the page on the first days or so. This graph as the title of the blog suggests is a mathematical formula X^-2.

What is interesting is when you apply this to a site that posts new content everyday but none at the weekend - you get peek traffic on Wednesday due to the overlapping trends as shown below.

These graphs assume that each blog is of equal interest and the same amount of people come back each time. We know however content will differ in interest and that Fridays have a drop off more than shown here - why? Well there could be lots of reasons but you will find that traffic shape is more 'bell' shaped. I could also suggest that if you post on a site that has lots of other bloggers, then Wednesday could be your best day to post. But don't tell everyone as they will all do the same.

I'd like to hear if you have seen the same trends or have reasons for the drop off on a Friday.


Anonymous said...

I've noticed that Wednesday's, usually when Chris posts, are our best days on EB.

My personal blog is much more erratic. Of course, my posting is pretty erratic, too.

Addidis said...

So Ive given this some thought too but couldn't be bothered to make graphs. Mondays/Fridays people receive their workloads. Generally speaking weds is hump day where they're caught up enough to goof off and read blogs. Fridays can be attributed to two things. Firstly the end of week rush to leave work in a state that can be easily picked back up Monday, or people are more worried about their personal lives / going to hackerspaces or just getting wasted on Fridays.

Peter J Francis said...

But what is the best time to post ? 8am or just before lunchtime

Paul J Clarke MIET said...

I like posting lunch time as time zones come into play. The feeds hit Europe while people are looking for something to read and it's early AM in US for people getting up or arriving at work. So 11am.!?

Ron Amundson said...

I took a look at my stats, and they are inconclusive, at least as far as total traffic goes. Then again, due to my sporadic writing habits, the vast majority of my traffic comes from google search rather than syndication.